At an air force base in Guatemala, the two presidents presented their "Safe Return" plan to provide transportation home for caravan participants who wish to return.The Honduran government announced on Saturday that it was shutting down its immigration checkpoint at the Agua Caliente border crossing until further notice, adding that Guatemala's was already closed "due to the crisis unleashed by sectors outside of national interests", according to a National Immigration Institute statement.People want to flee Honduras and not go back, says Madrid. Similarly, all else being equal, individuals who thought deportations had increased in 2014 were just as likely to report intentions to migrate as those individuals who thought deportations had decreased since 2013.If awareness of the dangers involved in migration to the United States does not help explain who migrates and why, what does? Though our United Nations homicide data end in 2013, more recent data from 2015 indicates that homicide rates in Guatemala have remained steady, but have more than doubled in El Salvador. Madrid and others say they used tear gas, but according to … Not surprisingly, research on the causes of migration from this region increasingly finds these high levels of crime and violence as a primary push factor in Central American migration.Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Global Study on Homicide 2013.Despite this acknowledgement, the common thread in DHS’ response to the thousands of women and children arriving at the United States’ southwest border in 2014 was to employ a multi-prong deterrence strategy consisting of (a) launching a multimedia public awareness campaign; (b) increasing U.S. assistance to help Mexico secure its southern border region; (c) decreasing the chances of gaining asylum by expediting the removal process; and (d) carrying out raids in January 2016 in search of individuals deemed to have exhausted their asylum claims. But what did they know about the journey to the United States? Facing tightened security, waves of Hondurans continue to try to make it to the US, saying they have no other choice. The analysis offers concrete, systematic evidence of the relative weight crime victimization plays in the migration decision after controllingThe likelihood of a respondent reporting intentions to migrate nearly doubles for those who reported that they had been a victim of crime more than once in the previous 12 months, compared to those respondents who were not victimized by crime in that timeframe. The unprecedented levels of crime and violence that have overwhelmed the Northern Triangle countries in recent years have produced a refugee situation for those directly in the line of fire, making no amount of danger or chance of deportation sufficient to dissuade those victims from leaving.Get the latest from the American Immigration Council in your inbox.The American Immigration Council is a non-profit, non-partisan organization.1331 G St. NW, Suite 200, Washington, D.C., 20005 | 202-507-7500Jonathan T. Hiskey, Ph.D., Abby Córdova, Ph.D., Diana Orcés, Ph.D. and Mary Fran Malone, Ph.D.Faced with the increase of Central Americans presenting themselves at the United States’ southwest border seeking asylum, President Obama and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), specifically, implemented an “aggressive deterrence strategy.” A media campaign was launched in Central America highlighting the risks involved with migration and the consequences of illegal immigration. Four police officers and five migrants and refugees were wounded and treated by paramedics, according to Honduran authorities. Together, these policies functioned to “send a message” to Central Americans that the trip to the United States was not worth the risk, and they would be better off staying put.DHS itself identified crime and violence, particularly in El Salvador and Honduras, as important factors in the flow of unaccompanied minors leaving these countries for the United States in 2014, concluding that “Salvadoran and Honduran children . . Rather, we have strong evidence from the surveys in Honduras and El Salvador in particular that one’s direct experience with crime emerges as a critical predictor of one’s emigration intentions.What these findings suggest is that crime victims are unlikely to be deterred by the Administration’s efforts.